Meningitis: Parts of UK could see ‘sporadic’ but ‘containable’ clusters
Students in Kent have queued for hours for meningitis vaccines for a second day as a public health director said “sporadic” household clusters could appear in other parts of the UK.
More than 100 students were turned away as queues swelled at the University of Kent Canterbury campus, with some advised to attend other sites for vaccines or come back on Saturday.
It comes as the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said the number of cases linked to the outbreak has reached 29, up from 27 previously.
Some 18 cases have been confirmed alongside a further 11 “probable cases” – all with links to Kent, the UKHSA said.
Kent County Council’s director of public health Dr Anjan Ghosh told a briefing three scenarios were being looked at over the next four weeks, with the most likely being that students who have travelled away from Kent will “incubate” the bug and there could be “household” cases elsewhere.
However, he said these would be “containable” and stressed the risk of infection between individuals is low.
Dr Ghosh told the briefing that three “rough” scenarios are being modelled for the next four weeks, as “that’s the time it takes for this whole thing to really subside”.
The first scenario is that the outbreak remains contained in Kent.
“Second scenario is that there are people who’ve left, they’ve gone off campus, and many of them don’t stay in Kent, they go and stay elsewhere,” Dr Ghosh said.
“They were incubating when they left, and then they become cases, and there are small household, sporadic clusters outside of Kent.”
He stressed these cases would be “containable”.
The third scenario, described by Dr Ghosh as the “worst-case scenario”, would result in another cluster outside Kent.
However, he said this is “highly unlikely”, with the second scenario “most likely to be the case”.
Thirteen of the 18 cases confirmed by UKHSA are menB. All cases have required hospital admission.
Dr Ghosh stressed that meningitis is much more difficult to catch then Covid, saying it “requires protracted close contact in order for it to be spread, and that usually is in a household context or in a dormitory context”.
He added: “It requires close contact in the form of kissing, sharing utensils, things like that.
“So in general, if you’re just coming across someone who is positive, you’re very unlikely to get the disease from them the way it was with Covid.”
He urged anyone identified as a close contact by the UKHSA to come forward for preventative antibiotics.
But he added: “There’s no reason for people to not be going about leading their normal lives.”
Speaking to the Press Association, Dr Ghosh explained the “most likely scenario” is that the outbreak is contained in Kent, with a few additional cases outside of Kent “which can be easily contained”.
He added: “A lot of the cases come from University of Kent students resident in the campus, who now have broken up for holidays and Easter breaks.
“So theoretically you could have someone who was incubating at that time, not showing symptoms and then going off on holiday home… many of the students live outside of Kent.
“And then they start to show symptoms and then with their close contacts potentially spread it.
“Even if that was to happen that would be a very limited to household kind of thing, which can be easily managed.”
Asked by PA whether the disease is more transmissible than before and why there have been so many cases in a short period, he said: “That’s a question we’re asking as well.”
He said the issue was being looked at, adding it was “too early to say” if the number of cases has peaked.
He said: “Hopefully it’s starting to slow down. I think until next week, we won’t be able to say for sure, the normal sequelae of an outbreak of this sort is about four weeks.
“That’s the timeframe for it to really slow down.
“So we fully expect, in four weeks’ time that it has slowed down, but we can’t say whether it’s peaked yet.”
Earlier, the family of Juliette Kenny, 18, who died from meningitis in the Kent outbreak, described their “immeasurable loss”.
In a statement to PA, Mr Kenny said his daughter had been “fit, healthy and strong” before her death.
The family are campaigning for teenagers and young people to be routinely given access to the meningitis B vaccination.
Juliette is one of two students who have died in the outbreak.
The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) has begun a review of the outbreak in Kent and to consider a wider review of eligibility for routine menB vaccination.
On Friday, more than 100 people were asked to leave the queue for meningitis vaccines at the Canterbury campus after a similar number were turned away the day before.
According to a university security official, 496 people were left in the queue for a meningitis B vaccine on the Canterbury campus when the line was closed off.
Behind them, more than 100 people were turned away.
Criminology student Molly Howard stayed waiting at the end of the official queue, in the hope that someone dropped out.
“I’m basically trying my luck,” the 20-year-old said, adding someone in high-vis said people had dropped out of the queue quite late on Thursday.
“If someone drops out I can take their place.”
She said she had been queuing for two hours after travelling for two hours from her home in Folkestone.
Ms Howard said: “I got a bit tearful, it’s fine. It brings back Covid. This brings everyone’s emotions back up.”
NHS Kent and Medway says 4,514 vaccines have been administered in Kent as of Friday afternoon.
The health trust’s website, last updated at 2.08pm, added that 10,561 antibiotics have also been handed out so far.
Deputy chief executive of NHS Kent and Medway Ed Waller said there are “plenty” of doses of vaccine available in Kent.
There are currently six clinics across the county providing antibiotics and vaccines for eligible people.
The chief scientific officer of the UKHSA, Professor Robin May, told Times Radio a “staffing issue” had led to people being turned away on Thursday.
He later told the BBC he is “always very cautious about declaring peaks” when asked if the peak of infection was over.
Elsewhere, Paul Hunter, professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, said he thought the “peak” of the initial meningitis “superspreading event” at Club Chemistry in Canterbury may have passed.
However, secondary cases affecting people who were not infected at the nightclub, but caught the illness from someone who was there, are still a possibility, he said.
The UKHSA has said the Bexsero vaccine for menB used on the NHS should offer protection against the strain identified, and it published details of an “initial genetic analysis” of the strain.
Similar strains have been circulating in the UK for around five years but more detailed analysis is required, the UKHSA said, as it invited researchers to look at its code in detail.
Published: by Radio NewsHub